Summary
Various megatrends are
impacting healthcare systems in Europe, creating a scenario where artificial
intelligence based technologies could be deployed for the benefit of all
stakeholders. Converging of these trends, such as, aging of the population in
the region, the resulting high cost of healthcare, coupled with patients
becoming more demanding and value-focused, is creating a situation where
technology can help in improving healthcare access, quality and affordability.
It is not hard to imagine a future with intelligent technologies helping us
diagnose diseases faster, and assisting doctors in treatment decisions, armed
with evidence based analysis of likely outcomes.
AI is increasingly becoming
a part of the healthcare ecosystem. Some of the applications developed, though
in early stages, are having an impact across care pathways, starting at
prevention, to diagnosis, treatment and recovery. At this stage, it is very
important to analyse the demand and potential benefits from AI applications in
healthcare in Europe. This will not only help us distinguish between realistic
hopes and unrealistic hypes, but will also help in focusing our efforts in the
right areas.
Analysing demand and
potential benefits throughout healthcare is very complex and many factors come
into play. We looked into three care pathways as a representation of both the
benefits that might accrue from AI use in healthcare and the medical dilemma’s
it will create. We estimate that large-scale AI use could yield benefits of the
following magnitude.
•
For childhood obesity: AI use could yield cost saving of
up to EUR 90 billion over the next ten years. This saving estimate includes benefits
from lower medical costs, and reduced losses from lower productivity and sick
days. AI could also help in increasing the efficiency of self-monitoring for
preventing obesity.
•
For diagnosis of dementia: AI use could
help save up to EUR 8 billion in diagnosis cost over the next ten years, largely
driven by increased rate of diagnosis at primary care level. AI can help
diagnose with up to 90 percent accuracy, bringing it to a large proportion of
dementia patients who never receive a formal diagnosis.
•
For diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer: AI use for
diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer could be very helpful in early detection,
also helping in treatment decision making and reducing doctors’ direct
engagement in potentially repetitive tasks. It could help save up to EUR 74
billon over the next ten years, if used on a large scale.
However, achieving these
benefits will not be easy. Various challenges exist, such as lack of sufficient
data, enabling data standards and regulations. According to various experts we
interviewed, technical, legal and financial feasibility of adopting AI will be
critical. Equally important, will be to assess the psychological feasibility –
is the public actually ready and receptive to AI adoption in health? Based on
our analysis
of constraints and
interviews with industry experts, we make three recommendations to help improve
technology-driven healthcare services in Europe.
•
Introducing a balanced scorecard in policy making will ensure that the focus is
not restricted to any one policy area, such as: improving the quality of
healthcare; containing the cost of care; or managing overall population health.
•
Moving quickly and consistently on regulations will ensure that the
vision on AI within the healthcare industry is matched and supported by timely
regulations.
•
Redefining
reimbursements to support outcome based care will alleviate any payer related
concerns for providers and
patients, providing the much needed development boost to AI tools.
Introduction
Access to quality and
affordable healthcare is a challenge that is growing every day. Increasing
demand and increasing scarcity of health care personnel has put pressure on
healthcare delivery, which is in constant need of optimisation. According to
data collected from several EU nations, medical errors and healthcare related
adverse events occur in eight to twelve percent of hospitalisations. Preventing
such mistakes could help to prevent more than 3.2 million days of
hospitalisation each year within the EU1.
Technological breakthroughs
in artificial intelligence and the availability of big data present the promise
of reducing such errors, whilst making healthcare more accessible and
affordable. Artificial intelligence will not completely replace physicians and
care workers, but it can play a key role in reducing the pressure on healthcare
systems and be a decision supporting tool for physicians.
In this paper we assess the
healthcare landscape2
in Europe3 and its readiness for
artificial intelligence (AI) applications. We also estimate the probable
benefits of using AI applications in healthcare, based on three different but
interrelated dimensions: potential cost savings to patients; rise in
efficiencies in healthcare services; and the increase in accessibility of
healthcare services. Furthermore we analyse three conditions and associated
care pathways:
•
Prevention
of childhood obesity;
•
Diagnosis
of dementia; and
•
Diagnosis
and treatment of breast cancer
Based on the analysis, we
identify some major challenges and the following steps needed, in order to
begin moving to large-scale AI adoption and advanced healthcare.
1 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/Health-systems/patient-safety/data-and-statistics
2 AI will have an impact on
all health related fields including healthcare services, pharmaceuticals, and
life sciences. For this study, we are only looking at the potential impact on
healthcare
3 The geographical scope of the study covers
Europe. Interviews have been conducted in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands
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